Baseball fans: Stop considering the Pittsburgh Pirates to be a backwards-thinking group. When Frank Coonelly and Neal Hunington were brought on to replace Kevin McClatchy and Dave Littlefield, the organization was fundamentally changed.
The move that doomed Littlefield was his selection of left-handed reliever Daniel Moskos over catcher Matt Wieters in 2007′s Rule 4 draft. Littlefield claimed that Wieters’ bonus demands had nothing to do with the Pirates’ decision to pass on him; rather, the GM thought Moskos was an elite pitcher who could move quickly through the team’s minor league system. Wieters is now set to debut for the Baltimore Orioles as the most heralded prospect in recent history. Moskos has not yet succeeded in Single-A.
A new regime
Huntington’s coming out party was held one year later, eight months after his arrival in Pittsburgh. With the second overall pick in the 2008 draft, the Pirates chose Pedro Alvarez, the Dominican third baseman from Vanderbilt University with a big bat and an even bigger asking price. After a drawn-out negotiations process, Coonelly, Huntington, Alvarez and agent Scott Boras agreed on a four-year, $6.4 million deal.
In 2008 the Pirates exceeded the previous record for draft expenditures, paying over-slot bonuses to other high-ceiling players like high schoolers Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller. “The bottom line is that we have to acquire talent,” Huntington said in an interview with The Hardball Times’ Mike Lee leading up to the draft.
Huntington went to the ends of the earth to make good on that goal, later signing the first Indian-born baseball prospects, as well as the first South African, Gift Ngoepe.
He isn’t afraid to make the unpopular decision, either, as evidenced by moves at the trade deadline that sent fan favorites Jason Bay, Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to Boston and New York in return for a bevy of prospects. The primary objective is acquiring elite baseball players and controlling them for as long as possible.
Huntington is a progressive general manager. With that in mind, I believe he is the ideal candidate to give Boras and his latest bonus baby, San Diego State starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, a system-shattering contract.
Boras vs. slotting
An aside in a blog entry by Peter Gammons at ESPN Insider set the stage for the agent’s next nefarious tactic:
[S]ome club officials think that if Washington takes Strasburg with the first overall pick [in the 2009 draft], Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare [Nationals president] Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.
Dave Shenin of Nationals Journal at The Washington Post notes that Mark Prior holds the record for the biggest contract ever awarded a top pick, $10.5 million in 2001.
At Minor League Notebook, Doug Gray asks if Strasburg is worth $50 million. Gray’s conclusion seems to be that Strasburg doesn’t lack the talent necessary to live up to a monumental deal, but that the contract would “undermine the entire draft and arbitration process” in such a way that the slotting system would be destroyed.
Undoubtedly, that is Boras’ goal. He despises rules that limit his clients’ earning power; for example, consider his comments to the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman with regard to the arbitration process:
“All teams are instructed to take their premium players and do their best to remove them from the arbitration market. It’s good business for them to receive premium talent for a grossly devalued cost.”
Boras wants to set a precedent with Strasburg’s first contract, after which he’ll sell the pitcher’s services to the highest bidder in free agency. There’s no such thing as a hometown discount.
Out-Boras the Boras
As with Huntington’s favorite stomping grounds — international free agency and the Rule 5 draft — the amateur draft is an area of the game where young talent can be acquired with no cost outside of money and time. Talent can be bought. The top evaluators and aggressive spenders will stock their farms with the best players.
Why not push the limits there, then?
What if Huntington made it known that not only would he pay the ransom, but that he would double it? What if the Pirates offered Stephen Strasburg a 12-year, $100 million contract?
Would the Nationals, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres avoid drafting Strasburg, bypassing the risky negotiations in order to sign Grant Green, Dustin Ackley and Alex White to more reasonable contracts? If Boras holds his line, they might. Despite the compensation system in place, a team loses leverage in the second year of holding the same pick.
Would Boras be able to say no to a $100 million contract for a prospect? I don’t think so. He’d be vilified, and Strasburg would have to fire him on the spot. The Pirates would set the kid up for life before he ever threw a pitch as a professional.
Why it makes sense
For the Pirates to offer a 12-year contract to Strasburg, they must have confidence in two truths:
- Strasburg is a once-in-a-generation talent.
- He has the mental fortitude to pitch for his legacy, not for the dollars he already earned.
If they believe that Strasburg today is a better pitcher than A.J. Burnett, and if they believe that the weight of a record-breaking contract won’t crush him, then this move is a no-brainer.
Consider that the injury-plagued Burnett in 10 major league seasons has been worth $87 million — $25.5 million in 2008 alone. Burnett also added mileage to his arm in the minors that Strasburg would presumably avoid in jumping directly to the big leagues.
If Strasburg truly is better than Burnett right now, then in theory it would only take four seasons for the contract to pay for itself. By 2013, the Pirates could be positioned well for a World Series run. They’d have until 2021 to build a dynasty around their ace.
But what if Strasburg got hurt? After all, there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. Consider that in just 106 starts (the equivalent of 3.5 seasons) Mark Prior was worth $46.2 million. At the first sign of trouble, Strasburg would be shut down. If he goes under the knife, so be it. A deal like this one assumes that the player won’t be healthy 100 percent of the time.
Pitching 10, $10 million seasons would mean Strasburg balanced the value side of the equation. As an example, FanGraphs values Prior’s 2005 season — 27 starts, 166.2 IP, 11 W, 7 L, 3.67 ERA, 188 K — at 3.0 wins, $10.4 million.
And, to borrow a line from Project Prospect’s Lincoln Hamilton: “Maybe Strasburg really is a freak who can handle extra stress,” and he’ll miraculously pitch at ace levels for 12 straight years. His floor is unbelievably high; his ceiling undefined.
That’s not to mention the effect Strasburg would have on Pittsburgh and Pirates baseball. The team won’t play on national television this year. Attendance is dwindling, and the Pirates are solidly ranked third behind the Steelers and Penguins in terms of fan interest. Strasburg would be the Pirates’ Sidney Crosby, the new face of the franchise charged with making the team relevant again.
We’ve written here that in his second year the helm, Huntington will look to upgrade his rotation depth. The Pirates need more pitching in the system. Wouldn’t it be something if Bob Nutting opens his checkbook and pays for Stephen Strasburg, not White or Aaron Crow when the Pirates make their pick this June?
100 million for a pitcher, if he wasn’t guaranteed every cent of it, then sure. But pitchers do blow out their arms quite frequently this days. Look at the top pitcher taken for the last 10 years, would any of those guys be worth it???
HE WONT DROP TO THE PIRATES… but he could get past the Nationals. The main reason why he is demanding 50 million is because he would love to stay in San Diego. The best chance the Pirates would have to get him is if he gets elbow inflamation or something, and teams become a little bit scared.
That said, let’s hope that we absolutely suck this year, and the Nats can’t sign him, and we get the #1 pick next year… then we can get a real pitcher.
If that doesnt happen, we can still get the #1 pick, and draft a nice, signable pitcher… does Bullington have a younger brother?
I have also read some things on Strasbug and there does seem to be some concern regarding his mechanics. There is especially some concern that because of motion he is susceptible to arm problems. I like the idea, but the Pirates must be very positive that he can stay fairly healthy. I understand that injuries are built into the equiation, but with their track record, paying a pitcher that amount with concerns about staying healthy is a huge risk.
What people seem to be talking about as ‘worth’ is a lot different than what should be paid to Strasburg. ‘Worth’ that people want to talk about is what he would earn on the Free Agent market. The problem is, he ISN’T ON THE FREE AGENT MARKET. He is in the draft for a reason. The point of the draft is to allow the best talents to go to the worst teams to keep parity in baseball. Even in baseball the most “can’t miss” prospects miss, especially when we are talking pitchers because all it takes is one wrong pitch and a guys career is altered forever.
Strasburgs reports are off the charts. Only one pitcher has come close to matching his performance and his talent in college and it was Prior. Prior got a record (and still the record) 10.5 Million to sign. Is Strasburg twice the prospect that Mark Prior was? Absolutely not. Some would argue that Prior was even the better prospect (given he had more above average pitches than Strasburgs 2 and he faced better competition in college and put up similarly video game type numbers), so why should Strasburg be able to demand even 30 million, much less the talk of 50?
He shouldn’t get that kind of money. There is simply too much risk involved and it defeats the entire purpose of not only the draft slotting system but also arbitration numbers. What makes Strasburg more valuable than Tim Lincecum? What about a guy like Edinson Volquez? What about someone like David Price? Until he has done it against professionals, much less Major Leaguers, its a huge risk that someone will be taking just to pay him 10-15 million, much less 25-30 million.
I don’t know that I’d agree that Strasburg is unproven. At this point, scouts know exactly what he has. He’s pitched at every level of competition available to him. If he’s throwing 100 with “Madduxian” control … I don’t know. I think I’d take the risk. He’s proven as much as he can.
I definitely agree that a pitcher should probably be the No. 1 pick, but I’d waffle if Green fell.
Gorzelanny probably doesn’t have any trade value right now. Jose Tabata was No. 75 on BA’s top 100 — I can’t picture a team that would rather have Gorzo than Tabata. Until he proves he can throw with the same stuff as he did pre-Tracy, teams have to consider him to be damaged goods. He’s worth more to us pitching in Triple-A, trying to figure things out than he is as a chip.
1. Mentioned Prior — in essentially three and a half years, he was worth $50 million. The injury risk is built into the contract, and time off is expected. That said, of course no pitcher will every receive a contract like this.
2. Rizzo won’t have the final say in this matter. Ownership and upper-level management would make the decision as to whether or not Boras’ demands are believable, and what should happen as a result. This situation isn’t comparable to any other. Boras is looking to break new ground.
3. If the Pirates made it known that they offered $100 million to Strasburg, Boras would get dropped like a bad habit. Moreover, if you’re Strasburg — and it’s your call to make, not your agent’s — would you really turn down $100 million? Really?
This is my favorite topic in baseball. I’ve read EVERYTHING about Strasburg since last June and can say that he is probably worth 75 million. So expanding on your ideas, it’s been said that agents control the draft, and that Strasburg is money-hungry, and would LOVE to stay in San Diego. But, if the Pirates say to Boras that they will pay 75 million for 7-8 years of Strasburg, Boras can tell teams “my client would not sign with you if you drafted him” and he could fall to us.
But, we won’t do anything close to that because $10 million per year for an unproven player is outrageous. Instead, I would love for us to get Matt Purke/ Tyler Matzek, and maybe get Matt Graham in the second round.
As a side note, what value do you think Tom Gorzo has in the trade market? Top 50 prospect?
It’s an interesting point, but I don’t know if it’ll happen. I have a few thoughts.
1.) Mark Prior.
2.) Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director whne they drafted Stephen Drew after Boras huffed and puffed about him all year. I don’t think he’ll be scared off if he’s still in charge in DC.
3.) Boras would never sign the 12 year deal because in his view, Strasburg is worth $50 million now, then $100 million in six years. He just said this week that a client of his would never sign an extension past their arbitration years.
The biggest obstacle would be getting Strasburg to fall that far — not just past the Nats and M’s, but past San Diego, which already has to be buzzing thanks to his NCAA performances.
Boras would need to come out and say firmly that he wants $50 million or he’s going to Japan. I imagine finding a team over there to pay him for a year wouldn’t be a problem. The sheer thought of an MLB draft pick getting $50 million is ridiculous enough for me to believe that no one would pay.
And then the Pirates … what do you have to lose? A six-year, $50 million deal is risky. If he gets hurt, he’s probably not worth it, and then you lose him to free agency anyway. The long-term deal really needs to be there to give you an opportunity to build some value.
Cory and I have discussed something like this before… just giving a prospect all the money upfront. Especially if it’s one that’s billed as a “for-sure” thing. Why not issue him an offer he can’t refuse?
There’s no way he’d turn down $100 million right out of the draft. And if the scouts are right, you’d be earning your keep on the deal on the Pirates’ end.
Would I consider it? Yes.